How to Win Back the House

Say Hello to Speaker Pelosi and good-bye to Tom “Delay my prosecution as long as possible.” If you have money and or time, here’s where to go…

Another item of interest from Ruy Teixiera and Donkey Rising (January 5, 2005 ). (We need to refer back to these great references to gear towards the future):

Where to Show Them the Money: More on Taking Back the House
By Alan Abramowitz

Based on the findings of the Abramowitz, Alexander and Gunning paper (see yesterday’s post), in 2006 Democrats would be wise to target Republicans representing high-risk districts: districts that lean Democratic in presidential elections. Such districts account for a disproprtionate share of incumbent defeats and party turnover in House elections. For example, in 1994, 32 percent of Democratic incumbents in high-risk districts were defeated compared with only 7 percent of Democratic incumbents in all other districts. Although only 34 percent of all Democratic seats in 1994 were in high-risk districts, 70 percent of Democratic seat losses occurred in these districts.

So where are these high-risk Republican districts? There are currently 25 such GOP districts: Colorado 7; Connecticut 2, 4, and 5; Delaware AL; Florida 10 and 22; Illinois 10; Iowa 1 and 2; Kentucky 3; Nevada 3; New Hampshire 2; New Jersey 2, 3, and 4; New Mexico 1; New York 3, 13, and 25; Pennsylvania 6, 7, 8, and 15; and Washington 8.

There are certainly vulnerable Republicans in other districts, but the GOP Representatives in these high-risk districts deserve special attention. In order to maximize their gains in the 2006 midterm election, Democrats need to recruit strong challengers in these high-risk GOP districts and make sure that these challengers have the funds needed to wage competitive campaigns. That will take a lot of money, but Democrats showed in 2004 that they can compete financially with Republicans. We only need to gain 15 seats to regain control of the House. With a major effort and a little help from a Bush Administration that seems determined to cut social security benefits for future retirees, it should be possible.

Notice what region of the country most of these disctricts are NOT in? (except for the two from Florida). Does anybody live in these districts or know someone who does?

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About Nick

Teacher of Social Studies. Born in the 1970s. History major, music minor. Big Baseball fan. Economic progressive.
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6 Responses to How to Win Back the House

  1. cali dem says:

    [off topic]Thanks again, Pamela. You were the first to link to my new blog. I appreciate it very much. :)

  2. Cali Dem

    My pleasure. It’s important to support our friends in the blogosphere.

  3. Nick,

    I’m in NJ but live only short distance from PA’s 8th congressional district. Next year I plan to help ensure the removal of Senator “Man on dog sex” I’ll also be helping on Patrick Murphy’s campaign to win the 8th. I’m going to hook up with some great folks I met while working with them on a JK event last fall.

    Looks like Patrick is off to a great start! :-) http://www.ourcongress.org/story/2005/7/19/154126/242

    I met Patrick at two Kerry/Edwards events in PA last year. The first time about week after he arrived back from Iraq. He seemed like a very fine young man & I was impressed with him as a person, as well as how hard he was working to help elect JK. I was thrilled when I heard recently he was planning to run!

  4. Dave

    We’ve got so much too do… keep us posted on your local races. As we get closer to 06 I want to focus more on them.

  5. “We’ve got so much too do…” You said it Pamela!
    We must take back the country from the forces of darkness. First we’ll take congress, then 2 years later the presidency!

  6. Dave

    A little dream I have… we take back the COngress and have a mass impeachment!