Sure Democrats may fail to win control of the House-especially if Dems don’t get out and vote. Sure there are two Democratic House seats in Georgia that are in trouble (Ga.-12 and Ga.-08). And it’s not surprising Bush went down to Ga. to lauch his false accusations against John Kerry. The bigger problem for Bush? There aren’t many non-safe southern Democrats left in the South for the GOP to pick off.
Meanwhile, outside the south (and particularly in the pro-Kerry Northeast) there are a whole host of Republicans sitting like fat birds in a tree just waiting to be snatched. Or sitting like Republican lawyers in an open field while Dick Cheney goes hunting. So if Bush wants to be a cheerleader (after all he was one in college) for the southern GOP, go right ahead George, your just preaching to the already converted.
The numbers don’t lie. According to the “nonpartisan” National Journal, of the Top 60 Seats most likely to change parties only four are held by Democrats. In addition to the two endangered Georgia Dems there are endangered Dems in Illinois 8th (Melissa Bean) and Iowa-03 (Leonard Boswell). That’s it!
More importantly, of the top 30 seats most likely to switch parties all are currently held by Republicans. But look at where these seats are located:
While 7 are in the South, there are 4 in the West, 10 in the MW, and 9 in the NE. According to Nat. Journal Editor Chuck Todd
“Focus mainly on races ranked 17 to 36; they are among the closest contests in the country right now. The first 10 are all but gone for the majority party, and districts ranked 11 through 16 are teetering but still in play.”
OK Chuck, we will. Of the top 16 seats that are gone or are teetering-only three are from the South! The three incumbents (sort of) are Tom Delay (Texas-22), Tom Foley (Fl-16), and Katherine Harris (Fl-13), a.k.a. a crook, a pervert, and a psychopath of Michael Myers proportions (hey it is Halloween). Advantage Democrats sure, but given the circumstances of 2006 in these districts how could there not be a Democrat advantage.
Meanwhile Democrats have better long term prospects in the 13 other seats (all non-southern) of the top 16 and in the 23 nonsouthern of the top 30. So if Democrats win the 13 nonsouthern seats of the top 16 most switchable seats, they have to win only 2! of the 18 nonsouthern seats among ranks 17-36 in order to get control of the House (or win three if they lose Georgia-12).
Of course even under the worst-case scenario (for Republicans) Dems can pick up no more than 7 Southern House seats, 1 southern governorship (Arkansas) , and two southern Senate seats (Virginia and Tennessee). Don’t worry Mr. President, you’ll still control 20 the 26 Southern Senate seats, 8 of 13 governorships, and a comfortable majority among southern House seats.
As for the rest of the country- you know those places don’t you? The place where John Kerry beat you 252-118 in the electoral vote while Kerry also won 51.1% of the nonsouthern popular vote? Or to put it another way, where the Democrats got a higher percent of the popular vote in 2004 than they did in all elections post-Roosevelt (save for 1964)? Yeah well, things ain’t looking good for you and your fellow bullies up there now. The only question is, “can Democrats close the deal in House and Senate seats in the regions John Kerry already won?”
To Be Continued…..
P.S. In his 1974 song “Steel and Glass” John Lennon wrote of his corrupt manager -Your mouthpiece squawks, as he spreads your lies, but you can’t pull strings if your hands are tied.” Lennon might have also added you can’t win seats that you must win-if all your base voters are in some other region.