Some Pretty Strong Evidence Hillary Won’t Be President

Yes it’s still very early. Yes people can still change their minds. Still, if there’s one person in this country that people have fixed opinions about (much more fixed than say, Al Gore or John Kerry) it’s Hillary. Now the Harris Poll reports some very interesting findings from a mid-March 2007 interactive poll. It turns out that half of all adults–including 24% of Democrats– would not vote for Hillary if she were the Democratic nominee, only 36% say they would, with 11% unsure. Sure there is a gender divide, but not to the degree one would think.

“While one would expect that women would be more likely than men to lean towards Senator Clinton, this is not the case as 38 percent of women and 34 percent of men both say they would vote for her. Even among women there is a divide as four in 10 (41%) single women say they would vote for Senator Clinton, compared to 36 percent of married women. Over half of both men (56%) and married women (52%) say they would not vote for her for president.”

Campaigning with Bill in tow (remember the two for one deal back in 1992?) would probably not be a good idea either.

“There is also an issue with things that happened during the Bill Clinton presidency. A plurality (45%) agrees that it is difficult to trust her because of Whitewater and other scandals in the Clinton White House, while 42 percent disagree. Similar numbers (44%) agree that her handling of health care in the White House raises questions about her ability and 34 percent disagree.” Additionally, only 37% of Americans agree with the statement It would be good to have both her and Bill Clinton in the White House again while a whopping 50% disagree with that statement.

Not all the news is bad for Senator Clinton as “Three-quarters of adults (76%) agree that she is a very intelligent person and this is the sentiment across the board. Even 65 percent of Republicans agree.” The notion that Hillary is too liberal to win may not pass the smell test either. “When asked about her political philosophy, one-third (31%) say Hillary Clinton is too liberal and 41 percent say she is neither too liberal nor too conservative. Just four percent say she is too conservative, but among liberals that number rises to 11 percent.”

Still, the fact that as of now anyway, she would not get the level of support of Democrats or independents that Kerry recieved is troubling to say the least. Hillary’s support broken down by generations is not inspiring to look at either. Harris breaks down the poll as follows: Echo boomers (age 18-30) Generation X (age 31-42) Baby boomers (age 43-61) and Matures (age 62 and up). Only one age group (Generation X) do the number saying they would vote for her outnumber those who say they would not vote for her-and among Gen. Xers it’s a split of 44%-40%. Furthermore, the age group that turns out at the highest rates (Matures) are also the most anti-Hillary group: By a 69%-23% margin Matures say they will not vote for her.

To reiterate, yes it’s still quite early, but given how well known Hillary is (or at least how well people think they know her) and given the overall negatives of these numbers, Democratic primary voters should think twice about Hillary.

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About Nick

Teacher of Social Studies. Born in the 1970s. History major, music minor. Big Baseball fan. Economic progressive.
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23 Responses to Some Pretty Strong Evidence Hillary Won’t Be President

  1. Nick, interesting stuff. That my generation (X) would be more likely to embrace Hillary isn’t that surprising, but the rejection of her by her own cohort (Boomers) and their kids (the Echo Boomers) is. True, the “old hippies” have gotten more conservative as they’ve aged, but I didn’t think they were that bad, nor their kids.

    The really bad news for HC? The “matures”. Sounds like there’s no way the oldsters are gonna vote for her…and they *vote*. More than 70% of those over 65 went to the polls last year. That’s more than double the 18-30 participation.

  2. Dan says:

    Rasmusen reports on this week’s numbers:
    2008 Democratic Presidential Primary
    Obama Within Five Points of Clinton

  3. battlebob says:

    What the Boomers do know is HC was great in Arkansas. She did a wonderful job with boosting educational achievments and health care availablity for a very poor state. Everyone knew about Bubbas skirt chasing ways so I never understood the outcry when his various mistresses came forward. Bubba is/was a liar while HC seemed the better person.
    But once she went to Washington, things changed. The triangulation and finding compromise works for some things if some kind of center is known. HC let her center disappear and no one knows who she is. I don’t mean the center of the political center but the center of who she is. She now represents (to me) the Republican part of the the Democreatic Party (along with Liebermann).
    One thing you can’t triangulate is war. Her vote for the vote allowing Bush to proceed doesn’t bother me as it was Bush who abused and dishonored the power; not the Congressfolks who gave it to them. Congress did give their power away but Kerry even said, as President he would want this ability. Bush is the culprit; not Congress.

    HC cannot explain or describe what makes her tick… what drives her…why does she want to job with the Bubba albatross hanging around her neck. She is not much of a policy wonk and always seems to screw up issues somehow.

    So if she runs…I will vote elsewhere…
    If she wins the Democratic nomination, I may vote for a Republican. I am looking at Huckabee. I don’t like his views on abortion or gay rights. He seems more pragmatic then any other candidate.

    Or I mays it it out because if HC gets the nod, there isn’t much of a difference between her and a Repub.

    I will not vote for Bubba’s third term.

  4. BlueWashington says:

    There’s my fear battlebob, we’re going to end up with a president Huckabee or a president (Tommy) Tompson, if Hillary is the Dem nominee. I look around Washington (the State of) and I think it could happen.

    I am sad.

    The only silver lining in this cloud is the increase in the number of seats in the House and the Senate for the Dems.

  5. vwcat says:

    I never could see why the msm keeps insisting that Hillary will be our nominee. When looking at the base, the netroots by far do not want Hillary. She may have the name, power, and machine but, none of that can buy you a personality or love.
    We all know if she was not married to Bill, Hillary would not even be a candidate. She is not the right woman for the job. Now, if it was Nancy Pelosi, women would overwhelmingly approve.
    As a woman I never cared for Hillary and don’t agree with her positions or her DLC ideology. I think many democrats feel this way.
    I plan to vote for Obama.

  6. Nick

    I’ve been waiting for you to let the Hillary stats out of the bag…

    Thanks – great post. I know there are polls that purport she has the women’s vote support, but I don;t know about that. I can’t get excited personally.

  7. Dan

    Thanks for the Rasmussen update. I have barely looked at the polls. I’m not at all excited about anyone. Blame it on spending some time talking with my favorite nominee last week.

  8. Blue W

    Perish the thought. We can’t let that happen or even entertain the possibility!

  9. Dan says:

    Pamela,
    JK will always have my utmost respect and admiration. I haven’t had a chance to talk with him since last summer, but it’s good to see he and Teresa thriving in their new endeavors.
    I found the transition of my support to Obama to be easy, although not painless. He is a remarkable person with untold talent. Inspirational leadership like his is rare. I hope he can earn your support at some point in time.

  10. Darrell Prows says:

    I expect this one to be like every other Presidential Election in my adult life: most of the actual votes cast for President will be decided from watching the debates.

    Again, it is going to be next to impossible for any Republican to distance himself (white males all) from GWB/Iraq, and the Dem should only need to avoid self destructing.

  11. battlebob says:

    As for supporting a Dem, I am on the Edwards’s bandwagon. I should have mentioned it earlier in my HC rant.
    I saw him at a ACORN seminar after the 2004 and he still sings his ame populist song.
    I don’t like Biden (have reservations) and the others such as Richardson and Dodd are not serious candidates.

  12. battlebob says:

    As for all candidates…we need to stop with the condeming Dems who voted for Iraq war authorization. War was to be the last resort; Bush made it the first option.

    The fault is with Bush abusing the act; not with Dems giving him the power. I don’t like Congress giving away their job but the act would have been a good one if not abused.
    So demanding apologies doesn’t help move toward the goal of getting the troops out.

  13. Dan

    It’s kind of freeing as a blogger not to have a favorite yet. After nearly 4 years of blogging about JK, which I will continue to do, I am relieved not to be in the midst of the primary wars yet. It’s been a busy couple of months for me with my daughter graduating from high school in June and we’re in the midst of choosing a college.

    After all the college stuff is out of the way, I’ll probably start looking more closely at the candidates. I know Obama has attracted a lot of good people from the JK camp, that’s certainly a consideration.

  14. Barack OBAMA or John Edwards would be MUCH better as president than Hillary. Check out my web site: http://www.1984ArkansasMotherOfTheYear.com

  15. OBAMA up 34% to 20% over Hillary in latest SOUTH CAROLINA poll

    http://www.insidersc.com/restricted/2007/April%2007/4-10-07/bandy.php

  16. I’m not ready to throw myself into any campaign right now. What I can tell you, is that this Generation X’er WILL NOT be voting for Hillary! No more political family dynasties in the White House! 20 years is enough, and has to end.

  17. Joe Mehta says:

    (Qulifier: I am a moderate Democrat) The 2008 Presidential race is actually over – Rudy Giuliani will be our next President!! The logic behind my conclusion is based on simple arithmetic of state by state electoral votes. The new accelerated primary schedule guarantees Rudy’s nomination. This is so because he will win all the big states (meaning those carrying the largest electoral votes) by Feb 5, 2008. And then, for the general election, all Giuliani needs to do is win one big or two small blue states to tilt the national balance in his favor. And he is all set to do just that. This is so because the national electoral votes map is critically and evenly balanced as evidenced by the past two presidential elections. However, between now and Nov 2008, all the political junkies (including me!)will have a great time watching the professional pundits spinning randomn events to their own agenda view points. Numerous commentators, journalists, reporters and consultants will constantly distract their audience from this clear and logical conclusion – and in the process will make substantial earnings thru this period. So let us all just enjoy the journey of this political campaign – the destination is already known!

  18. Ginny Cotts says:

    Todd,

    I’m not sure if the boomers have gotten that conservative, we did have a lot of time watching them as the first WH boomers, and there were just too many things that sort of didn’t make sense. Idealism and compromise that didn’t quite come out effective.

    Overall, I think it will come down to money will only buy so many votes, especially from liberal Democrats. In which case, I think a lot of us would rather gamble on Obama or throw in with Edwards again.

  19. Joe Mehta

    I personally think it’s far too soon for predictions and I think Rudy has his own set of baggage that a lot of people have issues with. Nothing is set in stone at this point. who the frontrunners are today could be the losers in Iowa. We saw that the last time out.

  20. Ginny, you make some good points. I can imagine the Boomers are disillusioned with their generation, given the last 14 years in power.

    I agree with Donnie…I’m not ready to pick a candidate. But as a Gen Xer, I have to say Obama speaks my language more than Hillary does.

  21. Darrell Prows says:

    What really needs to end is an uninterrupted national history of white male Presidents. I don’t believe that white men, now or in the past, have ever and always been able to do the job better than anyone else that was available.

  22. Tony Iovino says:

    Upfront: I’m a conservative republican. That said, the only strike against Hillary that I think is unfair is the health care issue. I don’t think, in any way, its fair to hold that against her as a sign of incompetency. She was new at the gig, its a tough issue with lots of competing interests. Nobody could have done better, and I give her marks for trying. I oppose her agenda, etc.–but I have to cut her some slack on that one.

    As for the other 974 reasons I’ll vote against her…..

  23. battlebob says:

    As far as Hillary Care….
    It seems to me that Bubba let her rot in the wind. She floated the idea that wasn’t very sound and her loving husband never gave her an out when the expected negative response took place.
    Bubba let the discussion die for 15 years.

    To me, the only health care plan that makes sense is a single payer plan. Get the insurance companies out of it whose only purpose in life is to suck the money out and deny benefits.
    We are already paying for it. Additionl money will come from rolling back the Bush tax cuts.

    This is not socialized medicine as the medical supplier is not the government. Any doctor can be used.

    The Terrible Dennis has this one covered.