A USA Today poll has found that Hillary Clinton has established a comfortable lead over Barack Obama. If former Vice President Al Gore is included in the poll, Clinton leads Obama 33%-21%. If Gore is excluded she leads with 39%-26%.
Furthermore, “if the Democratic contest came down to Clinton or Obama, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents chose Clinton, 53%-42%.”
The results for the GOP (candidates):
Giuliani leads the field at 28%, down 4 points from two weeks earlier. Thompson is second at 19%, up 8 points. McCain is at 18%, 1 point lower. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is fourth at 7%, down 5 points.
Interestingly enough, “if the GOP contest came down to Giuliani or Thompson, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents chose Giuliani, 53%-41%.”
At the moment Thompson formally announces his candidacy, he is expected to rise in the polls, at least for a short amount of time.
I expected Romney to have risen in the polls – he did well in the last Republican debate. He defends his positions well, and he is – of course – the #1 Republican fundraiser.
One thing everybody should remember: this is a nationwide poll. Nationwide polls are less important than state polls. It is all about individual states right now, and in the most important states, Romney does great – he leads both in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Regarding the Democratic nomination, I think that Hillary Clinton will win, possible even quite easily. The GOP race is, in that regard, far more exciting. As far as I am concerned, three people can win it: Romney, Giuliani and Thompson.