NH Poll: Clinton and McCain Lead

With the Iowa caucus just 2 days away and the New Hampshire primary just a jump and a skip after Iowa this year, a new poll in New Hampshire shows Clinton and McCain both leading in New Hampshire.

With exactly a week to go until New Hampshire, McCain has pulled ahead of Romney and Clinton has opened back up a double-digit lead in New Hampshire, according to a 7News/Suffolk University poll.

McCain gained 12 points since a month ago in the same survey to vault ahead of Romney 31%-25%. Romney had led in the December Suffolk poll 31%-19% over McCain. Giuliani is third with 14%, a three-point drop from 17%.

A month ago, Clinton led Obama by 7 points (33%-26%), but now the poll shows her with a whopping 36%-22% lead. Apparently, Clinton has peeled away some of those undecideds from a month ago as that number dropped from 19% to just 12% this month. Edwards comes in third with 14%. (He had 15% in December.)

The Republican numbers: McCain 31%, Romney 25%, Giuliani 14%, Huckabee 9%.

The Democratic numbers: Clinton 36%, Obama 22%, Edwards 14%.

The poll was conducted from Dec. 27 to Dec. 31 and has a margin of error for each party subsample of 300 respondents of +/- 5.65%.

Now is the time, depending on who you are routing for to say ignore the polls, and jump on in and do what you can to help your candidate.

As those of us who were involved with Kerry ’04 know only too well, anything can happen when you set you your mind to it and everyone digs deep to help make it happen. Mary Beth Cahill takes a look back at Kerry ’04, the Iowa caucus and the NH primary and history:

And the campaign’s relentless message about the future took hold. We won.

After Kerry’s victory in Iowa, he flew to New Hampshire in the middle of the night, and for the next week crisscrossed the state, hitting every small town and retail center to make up for lost time. Kerry was in rare New Hampshire form – playing hockey against a team of former Bruins, standing on street corners at rush hour to greet workers, holding town halls in every corner of the state.

Despite a late surge from Dean, Kerry won New Hampshire barely 60 days after his campaign was declared dead. A strategy built out of one part fortitude and one part desperation carried the Kerry campaign to victory in Iowa and New Hampshire. The lesson I learned is: If you have only one road, take it.

The memories I have of those days 4 years ago will stay with me forever. The elation of the Iowa win and then jumping on a plane to be in NH to cover Kerry’s campaign stops for the Kerry blog. Those were the days… Get involved!

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5 Responses to NH Poll: Clinton and McCain Lead

  1. alrudder says:

    The thing with polls is that we don’t know what their turnout model is: in other words the pollster factors in their opinion about how many and who shows up.
    Obama and Clinton will have a turnout operation that is a quantum leap beyond anything a Democrat has ever done before link.

    At this writing 33 hours before the caucus, it seems Obama is doing an excellent job of voter contact in person and online. However Clinton seems to know her demographic and is getting ready to physically get people to the caucus.

    My prediction:
    Clinton 31%: great GOTV and she will have most civic leaders to influence fence sitters in the caucus rooms. She needs to hope that her people were under-counted by the DMR poll
    Obama 30%: cross over appeal and young people could carry him. If the DMR pollster is anywhere near correct he wins
    Edwards 29%: Doesn’t have the money. But, and I hate to raise this issue, he’ll get the second choice votes of those not ready for a woman or a black.

  2. Alrudder

    This should be on our front page. 🙂

  3. alrudder says:

    That’s flattering Pamela. But, if I have access to my computer at about 7 CST tomorrow when the Entrance polls come out, I’ll say something else.

  4. Darrell Prows says:

    Alrudder: Worlds within worlds. Fascinating! Thanks.

  5. alrudder says:

    Those are very kind and supportive words