Comments on: NH Poll: Clinton and McCain Lead http://thedemocraticdaily.com/2008/01/02/nh-poll-clinton-and-mccain-lead/ Political News, Progressive Commentary, Liberal Opinions and Common Sense Conversation... Thu, 24 May 2012 02:40:50 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: alrudder http://thedemocraticdaily.com/2008/01/02/nh-poll-clinton-and-mccain-lead/comment-page-1/#comment-3562 alrudder Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:15:01 +0000 http://thedemocraticdaily.com/2008/01/02/nh-poll-clinton-and-mccain-lead/#comment-3562 Those are very kind and supportive words Those are very kind and supportive words

]]> By: Darrell Prows http://thedemocraticdaily.com/2008/01/02/nh-poll-clinton-and-mccain-lead/comment-page-1/#comment-3539 Darrell Prows Thu, 03 Jan 2008 03:59:54 +0000 http://thedemocraticdaily.com/2008/01/02/nh-poll-clinton-and-mccain-lead/#comment-3539 Alrudder: Worlds within worlds. Fascinating! Thanks. Alrudder: Worlds within worlds. Fascinating! Thanks.

]]> By: alrudder http://thedemocraticdaily.com/2008/01/02/nh-poll-clinton-and-mccain-lead/comment-page-1/#comment-3537 alrudder Thu, 03 Jan 2008 01:54:30 +0000 http://thedemocraticdaily.com/2008/01/02/nh-poll-clinton-and-mccain-lead/#comment-3537 That's flattering Pamela. But, if I have access to my computer at about 7 CST tomorrow when the Entrance polls come out, I'll say something else. That’s flattering Pamela. But, if I have access to my computer at about 7 CST tomorrow when the Entrance polls come out, I’ll say something else.

]]> By: Pamela Leavey http://thedemocraticdaily.com/2008/01/02/nh-poll-clinton-and-mccain-lead/comment-page-1/#comment-3530 Pamela Leavey Wed, 02 Jan 2008 22:54:07 +0000 http://thedemocraticdaily.com/2008/01/02/nh-poll-clinton-and-mccain-lead/#comment-3530 Alrudder This should be on our front page. :) Alrudder

This should be on our front page. :)

]]> By: alrudder http://thedemocraticdaily.com/2008/01/02/nh-poll-clinton-and-mccain-lead/comment-page-1/#comment-3519 alrudder Wed, 02 Jan 2008 18:09:46 +0000 http://thedemocraticdaily.com/2008/01/02/nh-poll-clinton-and-mccain-lead/#comment-3519 The thing with polls is that we don't know what their turnout model is: in other words the pollster factors in their opinion about how many and who shows up. Obama and Clinton will have a turnout operation that is a quantum leap beyond anything a Democrat has ever done before <a href="http://www.nyobserver.com/2008/clintons-iowa-director-talks-shop" rel="nofollow">link</a>. At this writing 33 hours before the caucus, it seems Obama is doing an excellent job of voter contact in person and online. However Clinton seems to know her demographic and is getting ready to physically get people to the caucus. My prediction: Clinton 31%: great GOTV and she will have most civic leaders to influence fence sitters in the caucus rooms. She needs to hope that her people were under-counted by the DMR poll Obama 30%: cross over appeal and young people could carry him. If the DMR pollster is anywhere near correct he wins Edwards 29%: Doesn't have the money. But, and I hate to raise this issue, he'll get the second choice votes of those not ready for a woman or a black. The thing with polls is that we don’t know what their turnout model is: in other words the pollster factors in their opinion about how many and who shows up.
Obama and Clinton will have a turnout operation that is a quantum leap beyond anything a Democrat has ever done before link.

At this writing 33 hours before the caucus, it seems Obama is doing an excellent job of voter contact in person and online. However Clinton seems to know her demographic and is getting ready to physically get people to the caucus.

My prediction:
Clinton 31%: great GOTV and she will have most civic leaders to influence fence sitters in the caucus rooms. She needs to hope that her people were under-counted by the DMR poll
Obama 30%: cross over appeal and young people could carry him. If the DMR pollster is anywhere near correct he wins
Edwards 29%: Doesn’t have the money. But, and I hate to raise this issue, he’ll get the second choice votes of those not ready for a woman or a black.

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