ARG Poll Dispells Clinton Trailing in Iowa

The latest poll from American Research Group throws a monkey wrench at the polls that show Clinton is down in Iowa. ARG puts Clinton 9 points ahead of Obama and 13 points ahead of Edwards:

Likely Democratic Caucus Goers Nov 10-14 Nov 26-29 Dec 16-19 Dec 20-23 Dec 26-28 Dec 31- Jan 2
Biden 5% 8% 8% 8% 5% 8%
Clinton 27% 25% 29% 34% 31% 34%
Dodd 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2%
Edwards 20% 23% 18% 20% 24% 21%
Gravel 1%
Kucinich 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1%
Obama 21% 27% 25% 19% 24% 25%
Richardson 12% 4% 7% 5% 5% 6%
Undecided 10% 8% 8% 10% 7% 2%

ARG also notes:

  • 12% of likely caucus participants are undecided (2%) or say that they could switch candidates between now and the January 3 caucus (10%).
  • 84% of those saying they support Clinton say their support is definite.
  • 93% of those saying they support Edwards say their support is definite.
  • 97% of those saying they support Obama say their support is definite.
  • Among men, Clinton is at 29%, Edwards 18%, and Obama 26%.
  • Among women, Clinton is at 38%, Edwards 23%, and Obama 24%.

Tapped notes that polls suggest Edwards is the “odd man out.” Big Tent Democrat has more on the ARG poll at Talk Left.

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2 Responses to ARG Poll Dispells Clinton Trailing in Iowa

  1. Darrell Prows says:

    If, as some predict, Obama turns out young people he’ll be doing the country a great service, and he will pretty well sew up the nomination. They are the ones most likely to get infected with the sort of nebulous (policy wise) enthusiasm that is his stock in trade.

    It will surprise me no end of women do not turn out for Clinton. She just is not that bad a person or politician, this should be groundbreaking.

    As for Edwards, it has to qualify as a long shot to go from a losing race as a V.P., and one that created no extraordinary level of excitment, to winning all of the marbles on the next go round.

  2. alrudder says:

    These varying polling results are simply the varying intuitive predictions of the pollsters about how much of which demographic will turn out.
    I’ll reply soon when the entrance polls come out.