If the last dozen states have taught us anything it’s that Obama will get over 90% of the African American vote in North Carolina. Personally, that doesn’t bother me. If there were a similarly viable Hispanic candidate, I’d be pretty darn excited about her or his candidacy. (In fact, there was such a candidate, Bill Richardson, and I did get excited about his candidacy and even donated to his campaign. Of course, he was for the most part ignored. Given his abysmal and embarrassing debate performances, I can’t say he doesn’t share some responsibility for that.)
With that out of the way (doesn’t it suck to have to “prove” you’re not a “racist” even when you’ve worked on programs to increase diversity in higher education for years?), North Carolina is expected to have around 40% African-American turnout. Though I’m a Hillary supporter, I would be happy if the community came out in bigger numbers. It’s about time they have more political muscle, IMO. I’ll go out on a limb and predict a 44% turnout. That means Obama starts out with about 40% of the vote, a space that appears for the time being to be inaccessible to Hillary Clinton. That means Obama would need only 18% of the “white and other” vote to get over 50%. If he gets 30% of the “white and other” vote he’ll have about 57% (a little less if you want to piddle with decimal points like Obama supporters were quick to do in PA). If he splits the “other” vote, he gets 68%.
If Obama has broad cross-over appeal like he and his supporters claim I’d say that Obama’s bar should be 70%. Given his “media darling” status (to use Big Tent Democrat’s phrase), his seemingly unlimited financial resources and his supposed “front runner”/”inevitable” status it’s more than reasonable to expect him to meet this bar easily.