Two recent polls released earlier in the week, showed that Barack Obama has a bit of problem looming in the upcoming West Virginia primary:
A new tracking poll out late Tuesday shows Hillary Clinton with a sizable advantage among registered Democrat and independent voters in West Virginia over opponent Barack Obama. The poll was completed prior to the decisions in North Carolina and Indiana.
56% of those surveyed indicate they will vote for Clinton compared to 18% for Obama. There are 26% undecided voters, according to the poll of 403 voters by Mark Blankenship Enterprises. Compared to a previous MBE poll in February, Clinton is up 13%, while Obama’s numbers haven’t changed.
A Rasmussen Reports poll showed Clinton with a 56%-27% advantage over Obama Monday in West Virginia.
Again we’re seeing the same pattern that has developed in some key battleground states that shows that Obama’s “scant support among white working-class Democrats, especially men, could dog him into November.”
The bottom-line is that “despite a well-financed television campaign and endorsements from Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV and Rep. Nick J. Rahall II, Obama is expected to finish well behind Clinton in West Virginia’s primary, which will award 28 pledged delegates.”
For whatever reason Obama seems to have a problem resonating with “white voters in blue-collar, leaning-red states” where Hillary Clinton’s economic populist pitch goes to the heart of voter’s needs. Jerome Armstrong says on MYDD, “If I could submit a question to Ted Kennedy, it’d be: “Why can’t Barack Obama connect with the voters of West Virginia like JFK did?””
Seriously, why not? And as you can see from the poll numbers above, it has nothing to do with the adoration of Clinton that would turn over to Obama were he the nominee. And think about it, if your knee-jerk answer is that they are racist– are you really saying something that you think Obama and his campaign can’t say, or are you saying it because of anger and frustration? Racism is ignorance, but unfounded accusations of racism are just as low on the scum-radar.
Obama will be making his only visit in the week leading up to the primary, on Monday. Clinton’s been there all week– she’s trying to run up the score.
The following week, Barack Obama has planned a party to claim the nomination in Portland, based on his own campaigns measurement. He can say whatever he wants, but it’s an insult to intelligence to believe it until it happens by the rules. As Howard Dean has said many times, MI and FL are going to be resolved and seated. Obama has now agreed with that position. Like it or not, the working number of delegates is 2209. There’s not a rule that says if you get a plurality of the pledged delegates, you win.
The Obama campaign will declare that there’s never been a candidate denied the election who had the most pledged delegates. True. But has there been a candidate denied the nomination whose had the most votes? I don’t think so. But neither of those metrics matters. 2209, or whatever the number is after the resolution of MI and FL happens to be, is all that matters. Until then, we don’t have a nominee.
Stay tuned… for all intents and purposes, Obama still does not have the nomination locked up.
UPDATE: The last two paragraph’s of this post smack of the liberal elitist mentality of Obama supporters in the blogosphere who continue to under-estimate the importance of the low income and working class vote. It’s no small wonder why some remain turned off by this elitism that pervades in Obama supporters.