While a prominent Democratic polling and advocacy organization expects the November election to be close, they argue that President Obama and his fellow Democrats enter the final sprint before Election Day with clear and strong advantages.
The public poll averages reported by RealClearPolitics and others are biased by the daily role of Rasmussen and Gallup, which are systematically biased in favor of the Republicans, the pollsters from Democracy Corps argue. Nate Silver of The New York Times has analyzed these and compensates for that bias, but the other polls report that Obama has about a 1 or 2-point advantage over GOP candidate Mitt Romney. That is wrong, Democracy Corps argues. In an email, the organization says its poll at the end of last week showed Obama with a 4-point lead – consistent with the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll which put Obama’s lead at 6 points.
“We are sure Obama has a lead of at least 3 points in this race,” the email says.
But much more important is the brand advantage that structures this race, according to Democracy Corps.
“In every area, the sinking Republican brand has created advantages for Democrats in the race for President and Congress. It matters when President Obama has an 11-point advantage over Romney on people viewing him favorably — and the same is true for the Democratic Party over the Republican Party. Look at the Democrats’ party identification advantage in the public polls and you will see some of this,” its email says.
Romney has been struggling this week in which an overseas trip intended to burnish his foreign policy credentials has instead yielded one gaffe after another.
The weakening economy has hurt Democrats and made this race much closer than it should be, Democracy Corps argues. That may already be reflected in these numbers — as people have already lived the first half of the year with a contracting economy.
“Further contraction will hurt and make this a very close race but, absent that, Obama and Democrats have the advantage. The two campaigns are not beginning at parity,” the email says.