Will it be a a none of the above election in 2008? Actually, it might seem that way-especially if the Dems nominate Hillary. I know I know national polls don’t mean much at this stage of the game insofar as the nomination process goes (remember Democratic front runner Howard Dean in fall 2003?). Still let’s assume for the moment that Hillary is the nominee. Let’s also assume that Bush’s approval rating and the approval rating of the Republicans in Congress stay in the 30s. One even safer assumption is that most voters will not vote for someone that they feel unfavorably towards, but probably will vote for someone they feel favorably towards. Gallup recently did a survey that broke down Hillary … Continue reading
It may seem odd for a progressive like myself to miss Tony Snow (the number of issues we agree on can probably be counted on one hand, if not one finger). Still, I can’t say I’m happy see Snow go, like I was for say Rumsfeld or Rove. Why would you not want to see him go Nick? Well there are a few reasons. 1) Cancer sympathy. I have some close friends and relatives that have had to go through cancer, some of whom had colon cancer (as Snow had). In any event, for reasons that should be obvious, it’s hard for me to be totally harsh on a guy who had to go through cancer after what these confidants … Continue reading
Sure it’s early, but of all the candidates running who is as well known as Hillary Clinton? Answer: none. So here’s another poll that indicates that nominating Hillary might not be the best idea the Dems’ ever had. “More than half of Americans say they wouldn’t consider voting for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for president if she becomes the Democratic nominee, according to a new national poll made available to McClatchy Newspapers and NBC News. The poll by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research found that 52 percent of Americans wouldn’t consider voting for Clinton, D-N.Y. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a Republican, was second in the can’t-stand-’em category, with 46 percent saying they wouldn’t consider voting for him.
Yes it’s still very early. Yes people can still change their minds. Still, if there’s one person in this country that people have fixed opinions about (much more fixed than say, Al Gore or John Kerry) it’s Hillary. Now the Harris Poll reports some very interesting findings from a mid-March 2007 interactive poll. It turns out that half of all adults–including 24% of Democrats– would not vote for Hillary if she were the Democratic nominee, only 36% say they would, with 11% unsure. Sure there is a gender divide, but not to the degree one would think. “While one would expect that women would be more likely than men to lean towards Senator Clinton, this is not the case as … Continue reading
I’m no doctor and I don’t play one on TV. And I am most definitely not in the business of health insurance-except for getting health care through my job as a teacher. So someone who knows more than me please answer this question. Is it possible to expand health insurance access in America without spending more money? Hillary Clinton seems to think so. Hillary’s visit to NH over the Feb. 10-11 weekend drew a lot of attention-especially her refusal to call her IWR vote a mistake. Yes it was a bad vote-but it’s in the past and we can’t change it. Health care and what we do about it is a front and center present and future issue. So how … Continue reading
Unfortunately, the answer is the Dems might be in more trouble than most people think. I know with Bush’s approval numbers way down it may not seem that way but stop and think for a second. Imagine that Bush had said in his 2007 State of the Union “We have accomplished what we set out to do in Iraq and find that we can start bringing out troops out of Iraq,” (I know this requires a lot of pretending, but bear with me). Does anybody really think that Bush’s approval ratings would still be stuck in the doldrums? Recent actual poll numbers on Americans desire to leave Iraq suggest no. But Nick, if Bush did that he’d be flip-flopping. And … Continue reading
The disaster of the Bush years will have historians debating the “if onlys” of the 2000 and/or 2004 election results for years to come. No doubt the failure’s in Iraq and after Hurricane Katrina will lead many to ask, “How could this guy have been re-elected?” Fortunately for historians the answer is already apparent in exit polls on Iraq, but even more importantly-on the economy! Wait a minute Nick. Are you trying to tell me that Bush won re-election because of the economy in 2004? Well, yes and no. It’s true that voters who picked class-related/economic issues as the most important (e.g. economy/jobs, health care, education) fave Kerry at least 70% of their votes. So those aspects fo exit polls … Continue reading
John Kerry may not be running in 2008 but his departure leaves a fundamental question that every Democrat needs to ask of the candidate they are supporting (or are considering supporting). First some quick history, since the 1970s differences on presidential votes between the different income levels have grown dramatically. For example, the support of whites in the bottom third of the electorate (household income of under $35,000) for Republicans is now markedly lower than support for Republicans among whites in the top third of the electorate (about over $75,000). When racial minorities are added to the picture the pattern of greater partisanship across income lines grows even more. While that gap has been there since at least Franklin Roosevelt … Continue reading